Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction By Dan Gardner

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.

Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk and Future Babble: Why Pundits are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Aunque el libro se enfoca en hacer forecasts, en realidad se trata de cómo tomar decisiones, hacia donde mirar y qué tomar en cuenta. Es algo tedioso y técnico en ciertos puntos, pero termina siendo un librazo con mucha investigación detras. 0804136696 En general, la información presentada esta respaldada por datos, referencias serias y experiencia personal de autor. El estilo es ameno, evitando caer en términos reservados a una sector en particular; aún cuando el autor es serio, se permite algunas licensias para 0804136696 La actitud 0804136696 I’m not being funny or anything but I bought this book because I thought it would help me sort my fantasy league team out. I’m in second to last place, 3 points ahead of Jimmy the Turk and I’ll level with you I’m worried. Anyway Dom Cummings suggested I buy this book and since he was spot on about the 300m per week from the NHS I though I would go for it. Alas, the last two weeks before lockdown I lost both of my fantasy fixtures despite super forecasting hard all night. I even emailed Dom Cummings to ask for my money back but I superforecast that is unlikely to happen. 0804136696 This book was recommended to me by a friend because both of us occasionally need to forecast as part of our jobs. In many aspects of this book it was like reading about how granny sucked eggs. A lot of the book covers theory on what makes an accurate forecast. There are some nuggets of insight on good forecasting which is nicely surmised in the appendix with the 11 commandments of Superforecasting.The issue with the book is not the material of the content but the padding. There seems to be a lot of it. This is a 300+ page book that can be edited down to half the size without losing information. Many of the same examples of Superforecasting were repeated than once.It was funny to read that a lot of businesses are not actually that interested if a forecast is right or wrong provided the forecast tells them what they want to hear. Talking from experience I know this to be true. In addition other forecasters are reluctant to revisit old forecasts in fear of exposing their inaccuracies, which to me, made zero sense and I am glad Tetlock agrees with this view.Overall it is a good read, just nothing special if you do this sort of thing for a living. 0804136696

I found this a really interesting book. I was very sceptical at first and the idea of superforecasters sounded like an issue of survivorship bias, but the author did address this satisfactorily. For the most part the book just goes through various types of logical fallacies and how you can avoid these to make accurate predictions about the future, so if you know a bit about probability and logical fallacies already you won't find it much new. But the story of the Good Judgment Project is very interesting and certainly worth knowing about.Certainly in this time of COVID 19, after reading this book you'll start noticing a lot of public figures fall into basic data interpretation mistakes, make predictions that turn out to be totally wrong, and then continue as normal anyway! 0804136696 This book is a great book for understanding forecasting. It explains the methods and personalities of 'Superforecasters', people who Tetlock have studied who consistently outperform experts and non experts alike in forecasting future events. Not perfect predictions, mind you, but consistently better statistically. What do they do differently than ordinary people to perform so well? Tetlock gives his best explanation in this book.One criticism I have is that I would've liked it to better slightly less popular science; include a bit hard data, remove a little of the padding. However even with this criticism, there was much for me to learn. And it did include substantial references to evidence.Prediction is an extremely important component to testing whether your hypotheses are correct. Therefore, knowing about prediction is a key issue in science. Anyone who cares a lot about science should read a book like this or something similar. For any such person, I would gladly recommend this book. 0804136696 The book clearly presents the results of a year long and very thorough work of the authors, dealing with how to improve our forecasting skills. It has given me a different perspective on the validity of many forecasts we see in the media and made me reconsider, how I am approaching forecasting in life at at work. However, after reading 50% of it, I felt like the concepts become repeatable, and the author is just trying to prolong the story by dwelling on the same several key ideas. In any case, I would read it again, as it gives a different perspective on an interesting and important topic. 0804136696

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